How much will cycling in Sydney increase by from now to 2036?

The CoS has its report out that has already had some discussion here. But I have not seem anyone picking up on the "misfit" between some of the data cited in the report.

The point that cycling has recently grown a lot is cited....

  • The number of bike riders on key routes approaching the city has increased by two and a half times between 2003 and 2010.


  • In the last 12 months, the number of cyclists riding in the morning into Central Sydney grew by 60 per cent.

So when they come to a prediction about the level way out in 2036 you'd expect all sorts of growth factors, including influence of yet to be completed cycling infrastructure,  peak oil and increased population densities, to kick in. But they say...

  • 14,000 people currently walk or cycle to work in the CBD. That number is forecast to rise to 27,000 by 2036.

Do they mean 270,000 by 2036? Is it a typo? What do you think Sydney will be like in 25 years as far as cycling is concerned?

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I think the growth in cycling in Sydney will be in built up areas close to the CBD. So im thinking Green Square, Central Park and Barrangaroo. Especially if new housing developments do not have car parking which is occuring more often these days. But 2036 is too far away.

One thing is for certain - cycling will not be an option for anyone unless infrastructure is put in.

We should be cautious of forecasting ever growing usage projections to a destination of finite capacity via routes of finite potential.

Lest we be accused of the same ludicrous forward estimates used by motorway builders/spruikers.

Depending on the road being compared cycles will give 4-6 times the throughput of single occupant cars in the same carriageway width - due to the width and requirement for trailing gap that always stays the same amount of time regardless of speed travelled because its a time gap.

Lots of bicycles can also work with smaller side gaps than cars - ie a single lane road each way with a single proper width cyclelane each way is one of the least efficient iterations, because the gap between cycle and car needs to be larger for speed and mass differential reasons.

Storage is absurdly stacked in the favour of bicycles as cars do not compress at all well and are an ugly shape that requires corner clearance and extensive aisling. 

It is possible to rack 30 bicycles in a single car parking space, AND the cycles will need less aisle space for access, and its much easier for a bunch of people to move to racks without interfering with flow outside of a parking location.  Parking garages often will not actually accept a lane of traffic without backflowing at the entrance, and the aisling requirements become absurd very quickly - often 50%+ of the floor space in a ramped building.

ie ludicrous for cars is a long way different from ludicrous for bicycles.

OK see the report now -

The answer is to replace buses with trams - i'd say with a hub sort of thing in different locations.


Surely I'll have a jet/rocket-pack or flying car by then?


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